By Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is urging the public and government agencies to prepare early for the expected impacts of El Niño in the coming months.
PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando noted that El Niño conditions are already present in the tropical Pacific and are projected to fully develop between June and August based on current monitoring and model forecasts.
He said projections indicate the phenomenon may intensify into a “strong to very strong” event later this year and persist into early 2027.
“Alam naman po natin na strong El Niño can bring below-normal rainfall, prolonged dry conditions, water shortages, and adverse impacts on key sectors, particularly agriculture, energy, and health,” Servando said during a press conference marking Flood Awareness Week on Monday, June 15.
“While these impacts may still be months away, the time to prepare is now,” he added, stressing that the advisory is intended to support early action by concerned sectors and “not to cause alarm.”
Servando emphasized that early preparation can help reduce potential losses and protect communities and livelihoods.
“Experience has shown that communities, local governments, and sectors that prepare early are better able to reduce losses and protect lives and livelihoods,” he said.
‘Very strong’ El Niño Ana Liza Solis of PAGASA’s Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section said El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific are now considered highly certain, with monitoring focused on its possible strength, duration, and areas of impact.
“Nakikita natin na halos 98 to 100 percent sure na nandiyan po yung El Niño. Ang minomonitor po natin ay kung ano ‘yung posibleng maging strength nito, gaano ito magtatagal, at ano-ano po ‘yung mga areas na posibleng maapektuhan,” Solis said.
PAGASA issued its first El Niño Advisory on June 9 to support the government’s strategic action plan and guide preparedness measures under the Task Force El Niño.
Solis explained that current outlooks show an increasing chance of a strong El Niño developing around September to November, with sea surface temperatures rising from weak to moderate and potentially strong conditions.
She added that some models now indicate a higher likelihood of a very strong El Niño between October and January, ranging from about 30 to 37 percent—higher than historical averages.
Ocean temperatures could rise beyond 1.9 degrees Celsius, she noted.
“Mas umiinit po ‘yung temperatura ng dagat. That could start as weak, then moderate, and eventually strong. Ibig sabihin po up to 1.9 degrees centigrade ‘yung pag-init niya,” she said.
Solis further described a possible very strong El Niño as an extreme warming scenario, likening its intensity to a severe physiological reaction.
“So kumbaga po sa ating lagnat, possible na ito ‘yung kumbulsyon—na nagkukumbulsyon ang ating dagat at sobrang init na po, more than 2 degrees ‘yung prine-predict natin sa pag-init,” she explained.
