The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) upgraded its El Niño status from “watch” to “alert” on Wednesday, April 22, citing a 79 percent chance of development by June–August.
PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando said conditions are already favorable, with possible impacts including below-normal rainfall, dry spells, and drought affecting water, agriculture, energy, and public welfare. Some areas, however, may still see heavy rains during the southwest monsoon.
Climate Monitoring chief Analiza Solis noted sustained ocean warming in the Pacific, with El Niño likely starting weak but possibly reaching moderate to strong intensity, persisting until early 2027.
Hydrologist Richard Orendain warned Angat Dam could see declining water levels similar to the 2023–2024 El Niño.
PAGASA also forecast uneven rainfall distribution from May to October, with western Luzon likely drier than normal and some Visayas and Mindanao areas still receiving above-normal rains. (Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz)
