Experts observe upward trend in NCR’s COVID-19 cases

BY ALEXANDRIA SAN JUAN

More people in Metro Manila are being infected with the virus which causes the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) as experts noted an upward trend in the number of cases in the region over the past week.

In its latest monitoring report released on Tuesday, the OCTA Research Team also observed a spike in the reproduction number or “R-naught” in the National Capital Region (NCR) which has increased to 1.17.

OCTA earlier explained that a transmission rate above the critical level of 1 means the virus is spreading faster, while below 1 means local transmissions are being controlled.

According to OCTA, the last time the R-naught in NCR was above 1 was on December 21 at 1.02.

The R-naught remained below 1 throughout the holiday season as the daily new COVID-19 cases decreased to 295 from the average 500 before Christmas.

However, OCTA Research fellow Dr. Guido David said the decrease was only “artificial” as testing was reduced by more than 40 percent during the holidays due to closed testing centers.

With testing centers resuming normal operations this year, OCTA observed that the number of new cases in the capital region has increased to more than 400.

“There is a clear upward trend now, and if this upward trend continues, the local governments will need to implement measures to reverse this direction before the pandemic gets out of hand,” the group warned.

On the other hand, OCTA said that the positivity rate in NCR, or the share of tests that come back positive, remained at 4 percent over the past week, still below the 5 percent recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO).

CASES IN NCR CITIES

Based on the same report, OCTA listed Marikina as a “local government unit (LGU) of concern” as daily new cases in the city significantly increased by 127% compared to the previous weeks.

OCTA added that Marikina also had the highest positivity rate among LGUs in Metro Manila at 11 percent.

Meanwhile, Quezon City is still the top LGU with the highest number of new COVID-19 cases per day from January 4 to 10 with 76 cases, followed by Manila with 46, Pasig with 29, and Parañaque and Marikina with 25 each.

The group added that none of the 17 LGUs in NCR exceeded the 70 percent critical level for hospital occupancy over the past week, but Pateros is already near the critical level at 67 percent.

With this, the research team urged the local officials to further intensify their efforts in testing, tracing, and isolation to reverse the increase in transmissions in the communities.

It also asked the national government to further ensure effective and stricter border controls to mitigate further COVID-19 transmissions including the possible entry of the more infectious variant from the United Kingdom.

“Given the real threat of a surge in the NCR, all the LGUs concerned should also start preparing public health systems and personnel, and increase health care capacity to deal with the influx of cases in the next few weeks,” OCTA said in its report.

OCTA reminded the national and local governments to monitor and strictly enforce the public’s compliance with minimum health standards such as physical distancing, wearing of face masks and face shields, and proper hygiene.

The OCTA team is an independent and interdisciplinary research group that has been monitoring the COVID-19 situation in the Philippines.

It is composed primarily of UP faculty members and alumni with contributors from the University of Santo Tomas and Providence College, USA.